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MENA

Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

The Conversation

Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

History & Context

from the historical archives

On August 19, 1953, a U.S./UK coup called “Project Ajax” overthrew Iran’s democratically-elected prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh in order to control the nation’s oil industry. Iran has recently discovered large reserves of lithium and antimony, critical for the tech industry.
Iran has a nuclear program; Israel has nuclear weapons

Israel has 90-400 nuclear warheads, has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, nor allows inspections by the Int’l Atomic Energy Agency. Iran signed both the NPT and a 2015 multi-nation nuclear accord (JCPOA), with rigorous IAEA inspections. Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from that deal in 2018.
Iran's threat to Israel is geopolitical, not existential

A geopolitical rivalry exists between Israel and Iran, with Israel’s expansionist ideology playing a leading role. Israel has pursued a vigorous PR disinformation campaign against Iran, casting it as an “existential nuclear threat.” Iran instead threatens Israel's strategic influence in the region.
Iran’s “forward deterrence doctrine” vs. Israel’s “campaign between wars”

Iran uses its "Axis of Resistance" militia network to deter perceived threats from Israel and to challenge both U.S. regional influence and Israel's occupation of Palestine and other Arab countries. Israel uses pre-emptive strikes, targeted assassinations, cyber operations, and PR campaigns to extend its influence. Israel's violence in Gaza feeds the escalation.
U.S. intelligence assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon

In March 2025, U.S. Nat’l Intelligence Dir. Tulsi Gabbard testified that Iran was not seeking nor developing a nuclear weapon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed otherwise, as he has for 30 years. Donald Trump then bombed Iran at Israel’s behest.
Christian evangelicals, a key U.S. voting bloc, drive U.S. policy on Israel

Many U.S. evangelicals believe the 1948 establishment of Israel was the fulfillment of biblical prophecies, the beginning of “end times.” They believe Israel’s geopolitical success and occupation of all the Holy Land will usher in the “second coming of Jesus.” There are more than 80 million evangelicals in the U.S., 25% of the nation’s adult population, and 80% voted for Trump in 2024.

Fight for Geopolitical Superiority in the Middle East

Israel’s conflict with Iran is just one piece of a bigger struggle for U.S. influence and Israeli hegemony in the region.

World In Brief

In an unusual step for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been a staunch supporter of Israel, Merz said on Friday that Israel's actions in Gaza are "no longer acceptable." The chancellor called for an immediate ceasefire, more humanitarian assistance for Palestinians in Gaza, and said his government "does not support" Israel's settlement policy

CBS has cancelled The Late Show with the very popular U.S. television host Stephen Colbert as of May 2026. The decision came just days after Colbert referred to the $16 million legal settlement that Paramount, CBS's parent company, agreed to with Donald Trump as "a big fat bribe." Paramount is seeking government approval for an $8 billion merger with Skydance Media.

As Donald Trump attempts to tamp down controversy around his refusal to release files of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, the Wall Street Journal published a story with a salacious letter from Trump to Epstein. Trump said he has directed AG Pam Bondi to seek the release of grand jury testimony, now under seal.

In fighting sparked by a dispute between the Bedouin and Druze communities in Suweida province in southern Syria, 594 people are reported to have been killed. Israeli forces continue to bomb the region, along with the capital of Damascus.

A syndicate for artists speaking out about Israel’s military assault on Gaza is being formed by the band Massive Attack, Brian Eno, Fontaines DC and Kneecap. They aim to protect artists from “aggressive, vexatious campaigns” intended to threaten them into “silence or career cancellation” by pro-Israel advocates such as UK Lawyers for Israel (UKLFI).

The spat between Donald Trump and Brazil's President Lula da Silva continues, as Lula said Trump was elected leader of the U.S. and not "emperor of the world.” He soundly rejected Trump's attempt to tie tariffs on Brazil to the legal outcome for former president Bolsonaro, who is facing trial for an attempted coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula.

In a groundbreaking medical development by UK scientists, eight babies have been born using genetic material from three people, the result of which is the prevention of often fatal diseases. With the egg and sperm from one couple, and a second egg from a donor woman, children were born free of incurable mitochondrial disease.

At a recent forum on authoritarianism, critics of their countries' autocrats urged U.S. Democrats to learn from their experience and organize urgently for the 2026 midterm elections in order to stop Donald Trump from a full-scale autocratic takeover — to create a widely inclusive movement, create solidarity, and find exciting and visionary candidates.

The U.S. Senate voted yesterday to claw back $9 billion from public broadcasting and foreign aid that had already been approved by Congress. It now goes back to the House for a final vote. Republicans cheered the savings of "one-tenth of one percent of all federal spending," despite tax cuts recently passed in Trump's "big, beautiful bill" that will add trillions to the federal deficit.

Air raid sirens, mass evacuation drills and mass casualty event rehearsals are taking place today in Taiwan, as the country holds a large civil defense exercise against any possible Chinese invasion. China continues to claim self-ruled Taiwan as its part of its territory.

After days of violent clashes, Syrian government officials and Druze religious leaders on Wednesday said they reached a renewed ceasefire. That has not stopped Israeli strikes on the heart of Damascus.

The Epstein-file controversy is dividing Donald Trump's base, with many believing the Trump administration is not releasing the file in order to protect Epstein's rich elite friends (including Trump). Trump is now criticizing his own supporters, calling the issue a hoax.

In Iceland, a volcano on Reykjanes peninsula near Grindavik has erupted for the ninth time in 2 years. Lava is spewing from a 1.5-mile fissure, and a second fissure of 500 meters has opened nearby.

In Gaza, Israel has killed at least 87 Palestinians in the last 24 hours. Twenty-one of those were killed near a food distribution site in Khan Younis run by GHF, the controversial Israeli-U.S. aid distribution organization.

BREAKING Israel has bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry and areas near the presidential palace in the capital of Damascus. It is also continuing air strikes on Syrian forces in the southern city of Suwayda and threatening increased attacks if Syrian government forces are not withdrawn from the south of their own country.

Jeffrey Epstein Is a Policy Issue

Americas

Jeffrey Epstein Is a Policy Issue

The American Prospect

With Damascus strikes, Israel seeks to tear up Trump's vision for Syria

MENA

With Damascus strikes, Israel seeks to tear up Trump's vision for Syria

Middle East Eye

The UK can excuse genocide, but draws the line at festival chants

Israel

The UK can excuse genocide, but draws the line at festival chants

Aid for Gaza’s starving children is right at the gates. Let it in.

MENA

Aid for Gaza’s starving children is right at the gates. Let it in.

“The Deception Game”: Trump Is Scrambling to Make a Gaza Deal on Israel’s Terms

MENA

“The Deception Game”: Trump Is Scrambling to Make a Gaza Deal on Israel’s Terms

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Ukraine/Gaza/Iran: Is Peace Possible?

MENA

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Ukraine/Gaza/Iran: Is Peace Possible?

Judging Freedom (Judge Napolitano)

Why Israel is now turning its sights on Turkey

MENA

Why Israel is now turning its sights on Turkey

Responsible Statecraft

What We Learned From The New York Times’ Anti-Zohran Crusade

Americas

What We Learned From The New York Times’ Anti-Zohran Crusade

The American Prospect

Artificial Intelligence Already Reshaping Our World

World

Artificial Intelligence Already Reshaping Our World

Breaking Points

Newstream

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@ajplus As Israel continues to kill Palestinians seeking aid at U.S.-backed distribution centers, a grassroots Palestinian group has been peacefully delivering aid to Palestinians. #Gaza #US #Israel #Aid #AidCenters #Palestinians ♬ 3 minutes, quiet, meditation, yoga, ambient(1155101) - Gloveity

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The Deadliest Period in History for Palestinian Prisoners in Israeli Detention

“Buy More U.S. Weapons”: “Daddy” Trump Pushes Military-Industrial Complex on NATO Countries

Trump’s Global Gulag Search Expands To 53 Nations

The Orwellian World of U.S. Foreign Policy

John Mearsheimer's Substack

Trump’s Palantir-Powered Surveillance Is Turning America Into a Digital Prison

The Devil in the Details of Trump’s "Final Proposal" for Gaza Ceasefire

Trump’s Big, Beautiful Handout to the AI Industry

The Media is Asking the Wrong Questions about Trump’s Attack on Iran

Peter Beinart's Substack

Netanyahu Thinks Israel Won

John Mearsheimer's Substack

Gaza’s Grassroots Effort to Ensure Humanitarian Aid Reaches Starving Palestinians

Israel Turns Gaza Aid Distribution Sites Into Open Killing Fields

Aid Blockades, Funding Cuts, Conflict and Land Grabs: geopolitics deepen despair in Gaza and Sudan

The EU's pathetic response to Trump's Iran attack

Responsible Statecraft

Trump: We "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, and now, "peace"

Responsible Statecraft

Israel Attacks Iran, Promising Full-Scale Military Operation

Desecrating God’s Name

Peter Beinart's Substack

Tulsi Gabbard said Iran not building nukes. One Senator after another ignored her.

Responsible Statecraft

Pure Orwell: Europe condemns Iran for attacks on its own territory

Responsible Statecraft

MAGA to Trump: Supporting Israel attacks is a 'middle finger' to voters

Responsible Statecraft

Israel is not winning. Trump must not cave to new demands for help.

Responsible Statecraft

100 days of Trump: A view from Europe

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

"Zero enrichment" fantasies will lead us to war

Responsible Statecraft

Madleen flotilla: Israeli forces raid Gaza-bound aid ship, detain activists

Middle East Eye

Palantir: Peter Thiel’s Data-Mining Firm Helps DOGE Build Master Database to Surveil, Track Immigrants

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