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MENA

Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

The Conversation

Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

History & Context

from the historical archives

On August 19, 1953, a U.S./UK coup called “Project Ajax” overthrew Iran’s democratically-elected prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh in order to control the nation’s oil industry. Iran has recently discovered large reserves of lithium and antimony, critical for the tech industry.
Iran has a nuclear program; Israel has nuclear weapons

Israel has 90-400 nuclear warheads, has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, nor allows inspections by the Int’l Atomic Energy Agency. Iran signed both the NPT and a 2015 multi-nation nuclear accord (JCPOA), with rigorous IAEA inspections. Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from that deal in 2018.
Iran's threat to Israel is geopolitical, not existential

A geopolitical rivalry exists between Israel and Iran, with Israel’s expansionist ideology playing a leading role. Israel has pursued a vigorous PR disinformation campaign against Iran, casting it as an “existential nuclear threat.” Iran instead threatens Israel's strategic influence in the region.
Iran’s “forward deterrence doctrine” vs. Israel’s “campaign between wars”

Iran uses its "Axis of Resistance" militia network to deter perceived threats from Israel and to challenge both U.S. regional influence and Israel's occupation of Palestine and other Arab countries. Israel uses pre-emptive strikes, targeted assassinations, cyber operations, and PR campaigns to extend its influence. Israel's violence in Gaza feeds the escalation.
U.S. intelligence assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon

In March 2025, U.S. Nat’l Intelligence Dir. Tulsi Gabbard testified that Iran was not seeking nor developing a nuclear weapon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed otherwise, as he has for 30 years. Donald Trump then bombed Iran at Israel’s behest.
Christian evangelicals, a key U.S. voting bloc, drive U.S. policy on Israel

Many U.S. evangelicals believe the 1948 establishment of Israel was the fulfillment of biblical prophecies, the beginning of “end times.” They believe Israel’s geopolitical success and occupation of all the Holy Land will usher in the “second coming of Jesus.” There are more than 80 million evangelicals in the U.S., 25% of the nation’s adult population, and 80% voted for Trump in 2024.

Fight for Geopolitical Superiority in the Middle East

Israel’s conflict with Iran is just one piece of a bigger struggle for U.S. influence and Israeli hegemony in the region.

World In Brief

The law requiring TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to sell TikTok or face a U.S. ban is drawing close, and Donald Trump says he has a buyer for the app. TikTok is reportedly building a new version of the app for the U.S. with a different algorithm, which could launch as soon as Sept 5.

Donald Trump posted on social media this week that he will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting 1 August. He has already imposed a global 50% tariff on aluminum and steel imports, a 25% tariff on all cars and trucks not built in the US, and a 50% tariff on copper imports to take effect next month.

In a dramatic development, the Kurdish PKK is about to disarm after 40 years of armed struggle against Türkiye. The process will begin in Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has hailed the move.

In response to the news that she will be sanctioned by the Trump administration, UN special rapporteur for the West Bank and Gaza Francesca Albanese responded: “the powerful punishing those who speak for the powerless, it is not a sign of strength, but of guilt.” She said: “All eyes must remain on Gaza, where children are dying of starvation in their mothers’ arms, while their fathers and siblings are bombed into pieces while searching for food."

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the State Department were named in a $20 million claim filed by lawyers for Mahmoud Khalil, the Columbia University graduate and Palestinian activist who was imprisoned by the Trump administration for 3 months. The claim alleges Khalil's false imprisonment and malicious prosecution because of his prominent role in pro-Palestinian protests.

111 BBC journalists, as well as 400 stars and media figures, have signed a letter to BBC management calling for removal of board member Robbie Gibb for a conflict of interest on Middle East reporting. Gibb sits on the influential BBC editorial standards committee and until last month was the only director of the company that owns the Jewish Chronicle. The letter accuses the BBC of being “crippled by the fear of being perceived as critical of the Israeli government.”

It's been reported that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth unilaterally authorized a pause on weapons shipments to Ukraine last week, without informing the White House.

Donald Trump announced last Sunday an additional 10% tariff on countries that align themselves with what he calls “anti-American” policies of the BRICS group.

The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Francesca Albanese, UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territory, for her documentation of Israel’s crimes against Palestinians in Gaza. Albanese called the move "mafia-style intimidation techniques."

Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a 50% tariff on imported Brazilian goods, due to what he claims is the "witch-hunt" trial of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro for trying to overturn his 2022 election loss. However, Brazil is one of the few countries with which the U.S. has a surplus, so it will likely hurt the U.S. more than Brazil.

A Liberian-flagged cargo ship was attacked On Monday and sunk in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthis because it was heading to Israel. Six crew members were rescued and at least three killed. The Houthis say they will continue until Israel stops its assault on Gaza.

BREAKING As members of the Israeli cabinet continue to call for the "cleansing" of Palestinians in Gaza and Israel's settlement of the enclave, Israel's defense minister Katz is now speaking of plans for an internment camp on the bombed ruins of Rafah.

Responding to user queries, the chatbot Grok on Elon Musk's X platform (aka Twitter) has been making antisemitic comments, praising Hitler, and calling itself "MechaHitler." “The white man stands for innovation, grit and not bending to PC nonsense,” Grok said in a post.

A team of astronomers led by the Italian National Institute for Astrophysics has discovered a "fossil galaxy" 3 billion light-years away that has remained unchanged for 7 billion years. While most galaxies expand and merge with each other, fossil galaxies remain virtually inactive.

With flood waters having receded in Texas following the devastating flash floods there this past week, at least 111 people are known to have died and 161 still missing.

Why Israel is now turning its sights on Turkey

MENA

Why Israel is now turning its sights on Turkey

Responsible Statecraft

The Orwellian World of U.S. Foreign Policy

MENA

The Orwellian World of U.S. Foreign Policy

John Mearsheimer's Substack

Trump’s Global Gulag Search Expands To 53 Nations

Americas

Trump’s Global Gulag Search Expands To 53 Nations

Artificial Intelligence Already Reshaping Our World

World

Artificial Intelligence Already Reshaping Our World

Breaking Points

“Buy More U.S. Weapons”: “Daddy” Trump Pushes Military-Industrial Complex on NATO Countries

Americas

“Buy More U.S. Weapons”: “Daddy” Trump Pushes Military-Industrial Complex on NATO Countries

Trump’s Palantir-Powered Surveillance Is Turning America Into a Digital Prison

Europe

Trump’s Palantir-Powered Surveillance Is Turning America Into a Digital Prison

The Deadliest Period in History for Palestinian Prisoners in Israeli Detention

MENA

The Deadliest Period in History for Palestinian Prisoners in Israeli Detention

Newstream

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@ajplus As Israel continues to kill Palestinians seeking aid at U.S.-backed distribution centers, a grassroots Palestinian group has been peacefully delivering aid to Palestinians. #Gaza #US #Israel #Aid #AidCenters #Palestinians ♬ 3 minutes, quiet, meditation, yoga, ambient(1155101) - Gloveity

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The Devil in the Details of Trump’s "Final Proposal" for Gaza Ceasefire

Trump’s Big, Beautiful Handout to the AI Industry

The Media is Asking the Wrong Questions about Trump’s Attack on Iran

Peter Beinart's Substack

Netanyahu Thinks Israel Won

John Mearsheimer's Substack

Gaza’s Grassroots Effort to Ensure Humanitarian Aid Reaches Starving Palestinians

Israel Turns Gaza Aid Distribution Sites Into Open Killing Fields

Aid Blockades, Funding Cuts, Conflict and Land Grabs: geopolitics deepen despair in Gaza and Sudan

The EU's pathetic response to Trump's Iran attack

Responsible Statecraft

Trump: We "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, and now, "peace"

Responsible Statecraft

Israel Attacks Iran, Promising Full-Scale Military Operation

Desecrating God’s Name

Peter Beinart's Substack

Tulsi Gabbard said Iran not building nukes. One Senator after another ignored her.

Responsible Statecraft

Pure Orwell: Europe condemns Iran for attacks on its own territory

Responsible Statecraft

MAGA to Trump: Supporting Israel attacks is a 'middle finger' to voters

Responsible Statecraft

Israel is not winning. Trump must not cave to new demands for help.

Responsible Statecraft

100 days of Trump: A view from Europe

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

"Zero enrichment" fantasies will lead us to war

Responsible Statecraft

Madleen flotilla: Israeli forces raid Gaza-bound aid ship, detain activists

Middle East Eye

Palantir: Peter Thiel’s Data-Mining Firm Helps DOGE Build Master Database to Surveil, Track Immigrants

*** Trump Is Building a Global Gulag for Immigrants Captured by ICE

Ten Sneaky Sleeper Provisions in Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill

The American Prospect

Hamas Responds to Witkoff Gaza Proposal, Demands Trump Guarantee Israel Won’t Resume Genocide

Artificial Intelligence Already Reshaping Our World

Breaking Points

She exposed government abuse. Now she’s locked up in an El Salvador prison

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