Unlike during his first term in the White House, US President-elect Donald Trump appears determined to keep many of his campaign promises. His cabinet nominations, from the Kremlin-friendly Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence to the conspiracy-loving vaccine sceptic Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., as secretary of health and human services, confirm Trump’s commitment to a scorched-earth campaign against American institutions and perceived “enemies within”. And his victory speech suggested his seriousness about stopping wars, beginning with the one in Ukraine.
Trump has long asserted that he would end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office. There has been much speculation about the settlement Trump has in mind, and the scenarios all have one thing in common: Ukraine’s dismemberment. If this has to be the cost of peace, it is worth considering the grim history of territorial partition.
Few events create such long-lasting enmity; fewer still have caused more devastating violence. The three partitions of Poland that took place in the late 18th century are perhaps Europe’s closest parallel to Trump’s vision for Ukraine. Beginning in 1772, Austria’s Habsburg monarchy, the Kingdom of Prussia, and the Russian Empire seized and annexed territory, effectively dividing Polish lands among themselves and erasing what had been Europe’s largest state by landmass.
In the face of such subjugation, violent resistance is all but inevitable. Poles conducted periodic guerrilla-style campaigns throughout the occupation, with major uprisings in 1831 and 1863. Resistance continued well into the 20th century, led by Józef Piłsudski’s campaigns for independence — laced with acts of terror — before World War I. Enmity toward Russia, in particular, endures to this day, with the Kremlin having Stalin-era violence toward the Polish people to answer for.
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