Expert in extremism and Europeanism, historian Dr. Daniel Knegt of the University of Amsterdam offers his understanding of the shifting political landscape. Dr. Knegt teaches in the Department of History at UvA and has authored several books on the history and tendencies of fascism.
In political discourse, ideas deemed acceptable at a particular time in history fall within what is referred to as the Overton Window—a concept illustrating how society’s moral values can evolve, causing the Window to shift over time.
This shift doesn’t happen naturally, Dr. Knegt explains. It is a process that political actors actively push onto society. He believes this is particularly clear in the current strategy of the far right. The motion of this “window” can occur both naturally and by design, and depending on societal and political circumstances, can drastically change moral trajectories.
Shifting the Window
When once-unthinkable ideas are brought into public discourse, they are often met with strong reactions. Yet, even their mention can serve as a breach of taboo—cracking open the Overton Window and shifting the boundaries of acceptable debate.
Recently, hundreds of thousands of people flooded the streets of Germany to protest the Christian Democratic Union’s consideration of partnering with the AfD. Germany’s far-right party, Alternative for Deutschland, is among the most extreme in Europe, and unlike some of its European counterparts, does little to disguise it. Political collaboration with the far right has been taboo in Germany since the end of the Nazi era.
Dr. Knegt describes the CDU’s move as “toe-dipping,” testing the ideological waters:
“They accepted the AfD’s parliamentary support for a proposal to curb migration, and when that caused a scandal in German politics, they kept claiming they would not work together with the AfD politically nor form coalitions with them.”
The public’s intense reaction highlighted Germany’s firm stance on radical movements. However, the AfD, buoyed by support from figures like Elon Musk, won more than 20 percent of the vote in February’s parliamentary elections, making it Germany’s second most popular political party. In previous elections, the AfD had ranked fifth.
Eat or Be Eaten
Earlier this year, U.S. Vice President JD Vance traveled to Munich for a defense conference and lectured European leaders about a “threat from within” to Europe’s democracy.
Under Trump, the U.S. government has been “very shocking and revolutionary in international relations,” says Dr. Knegt, internally “smashing checks and balances, silencing opponents, deconstructing the system and turning it into something that is supposed to only support the executive power of the president.”
While Vance expressed concern about a “retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values—values shared with the United States,” Europe has pushed back on that narrative. Germans took to the streets, and the EU has increasingly rejected claims from American tech giants that it was guilty of censorship.
For far-right European parties aligning with Trump’s administration, this may backfire against them rather than being an advantage. Dr. Knegt argues:
“I think this might actually be a liability for far-right parties in Europe, as they now have something to explain. Where do they stand vis-à-vis Trump and Putin, who are very obviously enemies of the European project and possibly a threat to the security of European countries?”
Endorsements such as Musk’s for the AfD raises the question of the sincerity of these parties’ nationalism, as their alliances with hostile powers are exposed.
Dr. Knegt draws a historical parallel to the 1930s, when far-right parties in Europe who sought influence often aligned themselves ideologically with the fascist regimes in Italy and Germany, only to later struggle with the consequences of having associated with powers that threatened their own countries’ security.
He further explains Trump’s view of foreign policy as a “zero-sum game,” exemplified by the recent meeting between the U.S. president and Ukraine’s President Zelensky:
“Trump and Vance’s dealing with Zelensky during that meeting was very unpleasant to witness. And I think it reflects Trump’s view of international relations: Make sure you are in a strong position vis-à-vis the other power, and make use of that position to achieve your aims. Blackmail the weaker side to extort wealth from them, use threats and force your will upon them. Because if you don’t do that, somebody else will.”
Knegt relates this Darwinist worldview to the way Nazi Germany conducted diplomacy in the late 1930s and early 1940s, particularly in their dealings with Lithuania, Czechoslovakia, and Romania—where vulnerabilities were exploited before outright war followed.
Looking Out the Window
Although alarming, Dr. Knegt emphasizes that these recent developments do not necessarily signal an inevitable fascist takeover.
“The Overton Window doesn’t need to be something that’s moving in that direction. It can also, theoretically, move in a different direction or be stable,” he explains. “But in recent development, it’s generally considered as something that’s moving towards acceptance of very radical and potentially violent and racist discourse.”
He urges vigilance:
“People need to realize that democracy does not only consist of having elections and majority decisions. It consists of having checks and balances, having a rule of law system, having your human rights guaranteed to you, even if you belong to a minority.”
Dr. Knegt concludes with a warning:
“If these things, these institutions, get attacked, or branded as enemies of the nation, then you’re in trouble.”
